New This Week: The Current State of the Iran War

Does Trump or Tehran Have the Upper Hand As Conflict Resumes?

Jul 12, 2026

This week’s debate came at an unexpected time. Earlier this week, we were recording this debate as “Who Won the Iran War?” when the terms of the memorandum of understanding were still in effect, and the fighting between Iran and the U.S. had ceased for a couple of weeks while a 60-day negotiating window was open for a better deal.

But while we thought diplomacy was going forward, the war took another turn. Renewed hostilities have once again raised questions about where the conflict is headed. As of this writing, the situation remains fluid, making it all the more important to ask what either side has actually accomplished – and which country currently has the greater advantage.

Is President Trump in the midst of achieving a strategic victory by crippling Iran’s military capabilities, restoring deterrence in the Gulf, and demonstrating that attacks on U.S. interests come at a steep price? Or is Tehran weathering the storm, retaining leverage through the Strait of Hormuz and emerging with a regime that remains firmly in control?

While events on the ground continue to evolve, the central issues we present in this debate under less contentious circumstances remain unchanged. Listen to this debate on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube – and as always, let us know what you think.

Arguing “Tehran is Winning”:

Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution

“How do we define victory? Imposing steep costs on an adversary is not sufficient. Victory in war must be measured on the basis of strategic aims and outcomes. President Trump defined his goal as ensuring that Iran could not pose a threat to its neighbors or to the United States. Unfortunately, by every measure, he didn't succeed. In fact, Trump's war on Iran has compounded its sway [and] extended its reach and the longevity of the regime.”

Arguing “Trump is Winning”:

Matthew Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy and Fellows and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

“I think Midnight Hammer last summer was one of the greatest U.S. foreign policy victories since the end of the Cold War, setting back Iran’s program. And I see this conflict starting in February not as something fundamentally different, but a continuation of that conflict. So, there are… questions about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, but the Islamic Republic won’t have a nuclear weapon anytime soon. Its military and its leadership have been badly degraded, and that’s something that we should all be happy about: that we’re not going to have a terrorist state armed with nuclear weapons in the Middle East, and that all of our efforts over the past twenty years have borne fruit.”

Live Debate Recording — “America 250: Is It Time to Stop Idolizing the Founders?” (Paid Subscriber Exclusive)

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Arguing YES: Osita Nwanevu, Contributing Editor at The New Republic; Columnist at The Guardian

Arguing NO: Helena Rosenblatt, Distinguished Professor of History, French, and Political Science, and the MA Program in Liberal Studies at the CUNY Graduate Center

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What Other Debaters Have Said About the Iran War

We’ve covered Iran from our early days, and many prior debaters have expressed views in the past weeks and days about the situation. Here’s a sampling:

The Long Shadow of the Iran War

Ian Bremmer and Firas Maksad | June 17, 2026

Watch Ian’s debate on the techonomic Cold War with China

The grand strategy behind the Trump-Vance Iran deal

Alexander B. Gray | June 25, 2026

Watch Alexander’s debate on whether U.S. control of limited territory in Greenland is a strategic necessity

Washington Heights: Trump’s chaos on Iran has been disastrous

Danielle Pletka | June 26, 2026

Watch Danielle’s debate on whether the world is on the brink

The Political Peril of a Deal With Iran

Karl Rove | June 24, 2026

Watch Karl’s debate on whether George W. Bush is the worst president in the last 50 years